When demand slows, supply cannot keep moving on inertia. That is where “surplus” begins: not just wine sitting in cellars, but capital tied up, discounts becoming the norm, and confidence eroding across the value chain.
The clearest signal comes from the OIV: global wine consumption in 2024 is estimated at 214 million hectolitres (down 3.3% versus 2023), a level that—if confirmed—would be the lowest since 1961. The decline in mature markets reflects inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, but also lifestyle shifts and generational change. And even when the global balance can hold thanks to two smaller harvests, stocks remain uneven—concentrated in certain regions and categories.
The implication is that this is no longer an occasional downturn; it is structural. In France, for instance, the government has presented a national crisis plan and is discussing incentives for uprooting up to 35,000 hectares, at a time when domestic consumption is falling especially for red wine. In parallel, the European debate is turning toward supply-management tools (green harvesting, distillation, grubbing-up) that can be activated—also via national financing—when a market surplus emerges.
The temptation is to look for shortcuts: empty tanks, chase volume, cut prices. But a long cycle demands a different grammar. The industry needs clearer portfolios, fewer “filler” labels, and tighter coherence between style, alcohol level, and occasion of use. It needs to invest in higher-value channels (hospitality, direct-to-consumer, clubs, experiences) and in marketing that speaks to new audiences without patronising them: transparency, measurable sustainability, everyday pleasure.
Surplus, ultimately, is a message. The market is not only asking for less wine. It is asking for different wine—and, above all, for a more credible strategy.
Those who understand this now can turn excess into opportunity: deciding what not to produce before the market—brutally—decides for them.
Riccardo Gabriele
