This week’s headlines deliver a clear message to the sector: global winegrowing is entering a phase of “unstable normality.” The first OIV estimates for the 2025 vintage point to 228–235 million hectolitres, a modest rebound (+3%) from the historic low of 2024, yet still around 7% below the five-year average. Quantity is not the core issue; climate variability is. It has become the dominant factor, constantly redrawing production maps and business plans. In Europe, France is living through a second consecutive harvest at historic lows, while Italy regains the position of world leader. The contrast should not be read as one country beating another, but as evidence that competition is increasingly anchored in resilience. It is no longer only about choosing varieties and sites; it is about managing weather risk as a full balance-sheet variable.
On the markets side, the long tail of U.S. tariffs and a softer dollar are slowing Italian exports: July–August shipments fell 28% in volume and average dollar prices are under pressure. The challenge is not merely commercial, but strategic. In a world where consumption is structurally more moderate, defending value requires stronger brands, selective distribution, a premium on-trade presence, and credible territorial storytelling. Mid-November international reports, in fact, forecast a 2025 with slightly lower global consumption and declining import volumes, but rising average prices. This signals a polarization between premiumization and down-trading: those stuck in the middle risk becoming invisible.
European policy fits squarely within this picture. The EU “Wine Package” is accelerating on anti-surplus instruments, label simplification, and, crucially, recognized categories for low- and no-alcohol wines. This is a cultural shift even before a regulatory one: it legitimizes a segment that meets new lifestyles without dismissing it as a niche. Australia—where corporate distress and international prizes for zero-alcohol producers coexist—offers a two-sided lesson on transition: innovation can open markets, but it rewards those who keep costs and inventories under control.
In short: fewer production certainties, more margin pressure, new markets and new product languages. Those able to integrate climate resilience, economic discipline, and portfolio innovation will not only navigate “unstable normality,” but turn it into competitive advantage.
Riccardo Gabriele
